Oculus and the Rift are (probably) dead.

Tuesday, March 25th, 2014

A few thoughts:

  1. A lot of investors and enthusiasts saw Sony’s Morpheus as a potential Rift killer. This sale to Facebook is leadership’s admission that they couldn’t compete against Sony alone. This doesn’t bode well, especially with MS and Valve possibly getting into the VR game. This tells me that the Rift product simply wasn’t competitive, or could not be made competitive with a fast enough schedule. I’m not sure how else you could interpret a sale like this. Why should I buy a $399 Rift that needs a $1200 gaming PC, when I can just pick up a $250  Morpheus for the cheap PS4 I already own?
  2. Loyalty lost is rarely regained. Now they’ll have to work twice as hard to remain credible in the industry, even if absolutely nothing changes. Remember how OLPC went from our technical darling to a completely dismissed near-crackpot idea? Or look at how Miguel de Icaza was treated for working with MS on Mono.
  3. Carmack and the rest couldn’t nail the real technical hurdles. Motion sickness is still an issue and adding cameras pointing to the rift was clearly a half-assed measure for motion tracking. Everything about the 2nd Developer Kit was a rush job. Sure its better, but just not good enough. Limiting its exposure to a limited number of reviewers was a careful PR ploy to make sure it only got positive press.
  4. Oculus has done nothing in the realm of controls. What use is VR if I can’t naturally use my hands? At least MS potentially solves this with the Kinect. WASD or game controllers isn’t a solution. What is the typical use case here that gamers expected? Its not revolutionary if I have to lug around a keyboard and a mouse. I don’t drive my car with a bridle. This isn’t VR. Its a screen strapped to my face.
  5. Price. Zuckerberg can make it affordable by filling it with ads, but who wants an ad laden VR headset? Sony can subsidize Morpheus with PS4 game licensing and other tricks. So can MS. Valve has the credibility, store, and audience to sell a $399 device. Did Oculus? Maybe once, but certainly not now.
  6. Games. What’s the Rift’s killer app? No one knows, because it doesn’t exist. We didn’t have enough time to figure it out. Now forcing it into an early 2000’s web-based social model guarantees we won’t find its killer app. Who is going to invest millions in software development to have Zuck say “no” and close you out of his walled garden?
  7. Notch’s pull-out of Minecraft for the Rift hurts. Carmack’s unusually quiet twitter today hurts as well. Its clear this was a sale of shame. A quick cash out for a product that probably wasn’t going anywhere and simply couldn’t fulfill fan and investor expectations.
  8. Facebook’s hardware  and mobile attempts thus far have been failures. Why should this succeed? Especially when they just lost all their hard earned community goodwill. Remember the Facebook phone and Facebook home?  Or how their Android app keeps getting rewritten because apparently writing a decent social app is beyond the power of this $100b company.

Let’s face facts. We all went crazy for VR and projected a lot of unrealistic scenarios here.  I got caught up in the hysteria as well.  Suddenly the metaverse was a 2014 xmas release away. The reality is that we needed at least another generation before we could sell it to consumers and we needed some kind of workable and standardized finger, head, and hand tracking before we could write that killer app.

The Oculus guys saw the writing on the wall, put up a great sales pitch, and sold out. Facebook will do something with it, but, no we won’t play AAA games or visit the metaverse with it. So, what now? Wait for Sony or MS or Valve? Probably. A hacker friendly open-ish VR headset just isn’t going to happen, at least not on this level. Maybe this is all for the best. I’d rather wait 12-24 months for a polished Valve or Sony VR headset under the aegis of a gaming company than the half-cooked product Carmack and Palmer were selling. I hope they enjoy their millions and that they share some of it with their loyal kickstarter investors.  We unrealistic dreamers will simply learn to be patient and try not to get fooled again.

About these ads

10 comments on “Oculus and the Rift are (probably) dead.

  1. A Swiss Guy says:

    Well, I agree that this sell-out sucks. I wouldn’t be so sure however that it won’t succeed nonetheless. Maybe not among gamers, but perhaps among middle-aged or elderly people who might like to meet their old friends in VR.

    I personally tried the first developer version of Rift and wasn’t overwhelmed (the low resolution of that dev version was simply way too low for me to feel truly immersed in VR. And the head-tracking seemed sluggish and imprecise.). I guess though, that with the massive cash that FB will likely be pouring in (hey, Oculus could get another 16bn USD and would still be cheaper than WhatsApp), they might be able to develop better VR goggles in the future, with at least HD resolution and more responsive head tracking.

    Regarding motion sickness: About half of the people wearing it complained about motion sickness. I didn’t experience any motion-sickness myself at all.

  2. Le Wart Ears says:

    This makes the most sense of all the speculation I’ve seen.

  3. Steve says:

    1. Most of what you wrote is pure speculations.
    2. Calling the Rift “half cooked” all of a sudden now sounds like sour grapes.

  4. BillyKidney says:

    Great analysis. IMHO There’s a kind of assumption that this is a FB VR play but it’s basically a new business for Facebook. They need a hardware infrastructure to complete with Glass and other wearables.
    The hardware don’t need to be top-rated, just competitive. Put it with their other ventures and in the med- long term they’ll find a business model for the capability while we wait for Sony/Valve to develop an install base. But yeah, Rift sucks – so far. .

  5. Jarrard says:

    Hmm, your possibly jumping the gun on this one a bit. For starters glove/hand control methods are a different part of the VR experience, and there are cheap products around that work. I’m sure once the final OR product comes out then we will see more.

    Second is that the Dev Kit 2 does fix allot of issues and the use of a camera to help with tracking is common place, even Sony are using one to help tracking, and likely most other VR companies to follow.

    I know there are sensors out there that don’t need cameras but lets face it, they are not cheap options atm, a decent camera can be had for $10 vs $100+ of these other spacial tracking devices. Nothing is stopping you buying 1 of these afterwards and plugging it in!

    Also what I think FB will do is start an appstore similar to steam and make money that way, no crime in that, if others do it why doesn’t FB. I don’t see OR being used for social media so much, maybe eventually but at the start its purely a gaming device, and perhaps watching a movie or something in the virtual cinema.

    I believe everyone just needs to chill out and wait for the consumer product before passing final verdict.

  6. Sava says:

    Facebook has actually had some incredible hardware – look at their Open Compute project. Their mobile business does more than a billion in revenue every quarter. Also, if you think Sony can subsidize a headset and Facebook can’t you are crazy…. that is the main reason they sold to Facebook, they are going to be able to do whatever the hell they want for a couple of years before they ever have to worry about making money – that includes developing hardware, content, and relationships at a loss in ways Sony’s could never justify.

  7. Rico says:

    This whole article is nonsense. Facebook can also make good games, VR chat sofware and MMO applications that produce revenue without overloading it with ads.

    Also: “Why should I buy a $399 Rift that needs a $1200 gaming PC, when I can just pick up a $250 Morpheus for the cheap PS4 I already own?”

    First, Morpheus will be more expensive, and Oculus will be cheaper that you mentioned. Also because PS4 can hardly produce 30 FPS in 1080p? PS4 is a piece of shitbox compared to any good gaming PC, read about why:

    http://www.reddit.com/r/pcmasterrace/wiki/guide

  8. […] Annoyed Admin blogbejegyzése a témában […]

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

%d bloggers like this: